Sunday, December 14, 2014

Energy stocks (XLE) death cross

As we predicted in this post (2014/10/energy-sector-xle-kol-short-term-bounce) energy stocks (XLE) bounced at 88$ and then resumed their descend towards 73$ ( 73,89$ 12-12-14 intraday low). Also EMA21(weekly) just crossed EMA55(weekly) which is a death cross event. Unless XLE reverses and starts rallying immediately, we expect a move initially towards 60-65$ where there is a support zone from 2009,2011,2012 .If price manages to break this zone then a move towards 50-55$(support zone from 2008,2010) is very likely.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode

Gold is still in a downtrend at around 1206 during typing this lines.There is a descending resistance trendline from late 2012 (weekly chart black line) currently at 1250$ and a positive divergence in weekly RSI (blue line)

During the last few days gold is in a tight trading range between 1190-1210$(practically between Daily EMA21 and EMA55).If gold manages to stay above 1210 we believe that it will move towards 1230-1240 where it will bounce and resume its downtrend with a fierce move towards 1000$(pink line).
If gold breaks below 1190$ then it will resume its downtrend towards initially 1110 and then 1000$(red line).We give 60% to the former and 40% to the later scenario.So be cautious with the interpretation of the current upmove from 1140$...

Regarding the Gold Miners (GDX), the picture is the same.If GDX manages to stay above 20$ then next target is 21-22$ where it will probably bounce and resume its downtrend towards 10$.If it breaks down below 18,5, probably it will move towards initially 14-14,5$ and then lower.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Gold: Still bearish-some potential to move towards 1220$

Gold is currently in a counter-trend. If gold manages to stay above 1180 for a few days more then it can move gradually up to 1220 (EMA(daily)-55 and descending trendline of the current downmove from July)  where probably it will bounce and resume its downtrend towards 950-1000$. If Gold is going to loose 1180 level sooner rather than later then it will probably resume immediately its downtrend.The Swiss gold referendum could be a catalyst event for gold price.We believe that as long as Gold stays below 1250-1260$ there is a low possibility for a substantial long-lasting rally.
Thick black line:Descending trendline from Sept 2012
Thin black line :Descending trendline from July 2014
Green line: Weak support level at 1180$

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Silver price:2 scenarios

Silver is in the current downtrend since mid-summer 2014 and it is probably moving towards 14$ (even 13).
Currently silver is in a countertrend with the following resistance levels:
1.Exponential moving average 21 (daily):16,26$
2. Exponential moving average 55 (daily): around 17$,where there is a resistance level from 2008,2009 and 2010
If Silver manages to stay above 16 and above EMA21 then the next critical level is 17$.From there we can see 2 scenarios:
A)Bullish(blue):Silver goes above 17 and then may form an inverted head an shoulder (Neckline 17,5$,  target 20$)
B)Bearish(red):Silver bounces at 17 and then moves towards 14$.It is our preffered scenario.

Friday, November 14, 2014

Alternative Energy entering a Bear market?

Alternative Energy ETFs like Solar Energy (TAN) and Wind Energy (FAN) have already broken their support trendlines and after a period of distribution (especially for TAN).Next targets for TAN 25 and 14$.

Next targets for FAN 8 and 6$

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Gold towards 1000$: A Final bottom?

Gold is currently heading towards 1080-1100$ where it will probably bounce towards 1140$ and then resume its downtrend with a final leg towards 1000$.There is a significant support zone at around 950-1000$(green zone)

Bollinger Band width and Mass index indicator have already started to move upwards and with a fast move of gold price towards 1000$ these indicators can easily move above 20 and 26 respectively.In that case they will trigger a second buy signal according to our previous study (Gold mass-ive trend change).

 We believe that 950$-1000$ will be the final bottom for this gold bear market that started in 2012. 

Monday, November 10, 2014

Agricultural Commodities (DBA) : Final leg down

As we predicted in mid summer 2014(01-07-2014) ( Agricultural commodities ETF followed a downtrend and broke down below 26$
Our bearish prediction

Currently DBA is in a neutral condition between 25-26,5.However we still favor our bearish scenario. There is a good possibility for DBA to move initially towards 24$ and then 22-22,5 (where there is a strong support zone) and bottom out at these levels at approximately spring-summer 2015.There is still a bullish scenario in the cards if DBA manages to move above 26,5$, although we think it is unlikely to materialize.