Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Treasuries Cup and Handle revisited

About two moths ago we noted (Treasuries (TLT): Double top or cup with handle?) the possibility of the treasuries ETF -TLT- forming a cup with handle which is a very bullish pattern.Today we can see that the aforementioned pattern is still evolving.We believe that the handle will soon breakout pushing TLT to move higher (and subsequently SPX to plunge)

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Friday, May 6, 2016

Copper revisited:Towards its bottom

Earlier this year (Taking Copper down to CHINAtown) we presented the following pathway for Copper:

Now let us see an update of the previous chart:

We are very happy to see that Copper followed to the point our projected pathway.We believe that copper will end its current bear market at around 1.5

Gold-SPX Ratio revisited:Another proof for Gold's bull case

Early this year (Gold:SPX ratio persistent RSI divergence and lessons from the past) we suggested an imminent break out of Gold:SPX ratio in favor of gold. Quoting our mid- January post (right at the beginning of current gold's upmove):"We believe that Gold will outperform SPX for the next couple of years.As we note to the following chart of Gold:SPX ratio,during the last three years of Gold bear market back in late 90's there was a massive divergence between RSI and price.This divergence lasted about 3 years before the start of the massive gold bull run from 1999-2011.Similarities with these days are obvious: Again a huge divergence on RSI and a rounding bottom of Gold:SPX. 3 years since the beggining of the current divergence will be on spring-summer 2016"
Now you can clearly see the breakout of Gold:SPX ratio.Another proof of the current solid bull market for gold.Next target (and obvious resistance area) for the ratio will be the 200 SMA .


Thursday, May 5, 2016

Gold and GDX ready for a pause until year end

Gold and gold miners (GDX) are in a bull market (It's official: Gold miners are in a bull market!). Currently gold and miners have probably concluded wave I and are now on their way to corrective wave II (traditionally summer is a weak period for gold). We expect an ABC flat type of correction that will last until the end of the year and bring gold and GDX towards 1180 and 19 respectively (around 0.5  fib support line of the recent upmove). We expect gold to slightly overperform GDX during this correction.A deeper correction towards 0.618 fib level (1150 for gold and 17.5 for GDX) cannot be excluded.