Monday, June 23, 2014

20 years after the end of Cold War, a new Nuclear era?URA(h)!

 Uranium producers ETF (URA) is forming a long term saucer bottom (in fact it seems we are in the very bottom of this process).
Weekly chart: we can notice the following bullish signs:
1. A transient breech of 50 SMA(weekly)(blue cycle)
2. Increased volume since the begining of 2014(green cycle)
3. The price bounced twice at 14$
4. 20 SMA is trying to stay above 50SMA

Daily Chart:We can see a clear diamond pattern(Green).Diamonds are either continuation or reversal patterns.
Bullish Scenario (we favor this scenario)

Bearish Scenario 

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Silver:To log or not to log?

Gold finally followed miners (GDX) and broke out.Now both Gold and GDX have bounced at 50 EMA(weekly).In order to see a sustained rally the bulls need Gold and GDX to stay for a few weeks time  over 50 EMA(weekly) and later on 20EMA(weekly) cross 50EMA

 Silver is an interesting case.In arithmetic price scale it seems that silver just broke out from two resistance lines (the older one starting from 2011 top and the later from summer 2013)

However in log price terms Silver is still bellow both these resistance lines.

Either way Silver is still bellow 50EMA(weekly).It looks bullish but we prefer to see a confirmation of this trend (we would like to see Silver staying above 50EMA(weekly) for a few weeks)

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Gold Update: Will Gold follow GDX?

Gold is still inside a falling wedge although miners (GDX) seem to break out from a similar falling wedge.Is it a false break out or will Gold join GDX to the upside soon?

Regarding relative performance between Gold and miners, as the following chart shows miners might be ready(or almost ready) to perform better than gold (possibly by leading a substantial rally of precious metals sector)

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Gold update: IHS about to fail?

Gold after forming a triangle in April and May broke down.Now is moving towards 1265$ although with low volume. In order for the bulls to remain valid the IHS scenario they need to see higher volumes. The April May triangle is probably a continuation pattern and it gives a target for gold at 1200$ where it should bounce.
So a possible pathway for gold:

 Probably gold is now forming a falling wedge and should bottom in mid July(cycle low) at ~1200$
If this scenario plays out then Gold is in a long term trading zone between 1200 and 1400$

Gold Miners (GDX) are following a similar pattern. GDX is moving (with declining volume) towards 23 ( gap from 27/5) and then move towards 20,5 in early July (it will bottom earlier than gold just like December 2013).

Friday, June 6, 2014

An oil price shock followed by a turn towards alternative energy sources?

Since mid-2012 the alt-energy(GEX) sector is outperforming the classic (oil) energy sector(XLE)

Also the conventional energy sector (XLE) is in all time highs with declining volume and the RSI is over 70 (is getting overbought).It seems it is approaching a top.

On the other hand alternative energy will probably form a nice cup and handle basing pattern (volume pattern seems to confirm this also)

Whats next?We believe that a handle will be formed towards 45 and then a bullish run towards 75-80, 100, 120.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Treasuries Update: 120 is the limit...

Bonds currently seem overbought and ready for a small correction..probably a buying opportunity

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TLT (20+ years treasury bond ETF) has already made a golden cross (21 week exp.moving average crossed 55 week exp.moving average) after hitting a double bottom last year.
Probably it will correct towards 110,5 and then resume its uptrend towards 121.

TIP (Inflation protected Treasury Bond ETF) has just made a golden cross.Probably it will correct towards 114 and then resume its uptrend towards 120.

Sunday, June 1, 2014

Gold Update

Finally both Gold and miners broke down from their respective triangles (and rising RSI trendline) and are now moving towards 1200$ and 20,7$ respectively

Next target for Gold 1200$ where it should bounce.

Next target for GDX 20,7$

Silver is now sitting on a critical support at ~18,75$.If silver break down through that support then it will move initially towards 16$