Friday, November 28, 2014

Gold: Still bearish-some potential to move towards 1220$

Gold is currently in a counter-trend. If gold manages to stay above 1180 for a few days more then it can move gradually up to 1220 (EMA(daily)-55 and descending trendline of the current downmove from July)  where probably it will bounce and resume its downtrend towards 950-1000$. If Gold is going to loose 1180 level sooner rather than later then it will probably resume immediately its downtrend.The Swiss gold referendum could be a catalyst event for gold price.We believe that as long as Gold stays below 1250-1260$ there is a low possibility for a substantial long-lasting rally.
Thick black line:Descending trendline from Sept 2012
Thin black line :Descending trendline from July 2014
Green line: Weak support level at 1180$

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Silver price:2 scenarios

Silver is in the current downtrend since mid-summer 2014 and it is probably moving towards 14$ (even 13).
Currently silver is in a countertrend with the following resistance levels:
1.Exponential moving average 21 (daily):16,26$
2. Exponential moving average 55 (daily): around 17$,where there is a resistance level from 2008,2009 and 2010
If Silver manages to stay above 16 and above EMA21 then the next critical level is 17$.From there we can see 2 scenarios:
A)Bullish(blue):Silver goes above 17 and then may form an inverted head an shoulder (Neckline 17,5$,  target 20$)
B)Bearish(red):Silver bounces at 17 and then moves towards 14$.It is our preffered scenario.

Friday, November 14, 2014

Alternative Energy entering a Bear market?

Alternative Energy ETFs like Solar Energy (TAN) and Wind Energy (FAN) have already broken their support trendlines and after a period of distribution (especially for TAN).Next targets for TAN 25 and 14$.

Next targets for FAN 8 and 6$

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Gold towards 1000$: A Final bottom?

Gold is currently heading towards 1080-1100$ where it will probably bounce towards 1140$ and then resume its downtrend with a final leg towards 1000$.There is a significant support zone at around 950-1000$(green zone)

Bollinger Band width and Mass index indicator have already started to move upwards and with a fast move of gold price towards 1000$ these indicators can easily move above 20 and 26 respectively.In that case they will trigger a second buy signal according to our previous study (Gold mass-ive trend change).

 We believe that 950$-1000$ will be the final bottom for this gold bear market that started in 2012. 

Monday, November 10, 2014

Agricultural Commodities (DBA) : Final leg down

As we predicted in mid summer 2014(01-07-2014) ( Agricultural commodities ETF followed a downtrend and broke down below 26$
Our bearish prediction

Currently DBA is in a neutral condition between 25-26,5.However we still favor our bearish scenario. There is a good possibility for DBA to move initially towards 24$ and then 22-22,5 (where there is a strong support zone) and bottom out at these levels at approximately spring-summer 2015.There is still a bullish scenario in the cards if DBA manages to move above 26,5$, although we think it is unlikely to materialize.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Uranium (URA): Still in bear mode

As we predicted in early October (09-10-14) ( Uranium ETF (URA) bounced exactly between 11-11,5 and is now moving fast towards around 13,5 and possibly even 15$.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Crude near an intermediate bottom?

Crude ($WTIC) had recently a huge quick drop from around 105$ to 77,5$ currently.November to January is historically a weak period for crude price as seasonality charts prove.

There is a substantial resistance area at 75-77,5$.Weekly RSI is already in oversold territory and up to now there wasn't any significant pullback of the current sharp downmove.

On daily chart there are few signs of positive RSI divergence.

There are growing signs that crude is approaching a possible intermediate bottom at around 75$.We believe that in next 1 or 2 weeks crude will pause its downmove and then a trading range between (roughly) 76-83$ will follow until possibly early next year(blue box).