Monday, August 31, 2015

Are better days coming for oil? 2 possible scenarios.

Oil after touching 37's bounced hard towards mid-40's. A month ago we suggested that oil would move towards 36-37$ and then bounce hard(Oil at crossroads).

Currently oil is approaching a strong resistance zone at 48-50$ where the current upmove will probably stall.From that point onwards we can see two possible scanarios :
A)A V-shape bottom scanario where oil will move above 50$.
B)Oil will bounce at 48-50$ (or even lower) and then move towards 38-40$ at which point it will reverse and move towards 44-46$, where it will face a substantial resistance zone.This one is our prefered scenario currently and it is a scenario that potentially can lead to a longer-term bottom formation

Again Energy sector (XLE) moved according to our plan and bounced at 59-60.We believe that the current upmove of XLE will stall at 68-70$ and then probably it will move again towards 60's or lower. 

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Treasuries: A small pause

TLT (20+ year treasury bond ETF) tried without success to break above the resistance zone of 125-126.

As we noted earlier (QE...4?) TLT will probably move towards 120 where it will probably bounce.We stay with our previous projection:

Saturday, August 22, 2015

Gold at resistance zone

Gold recently managed to break above 1130$ and move towards the strong resistance zone of 1155-1160$.Probably Gold has just finished a 4th wave.It is now lying just below a strong resistance zone and is getting overbought(RSI(14) 69) .IF gold manages to break (and remain) above 1160 then the current count is dead and a possible next target will be 1200-1210$.This will be the last line of defence for the bears.

Same picture for miners(GDX).GDX managed to break above 15 but it is still below the strong resistance zone of 17.5-18.IF GDX breaks above 18 then next target will be 20.5 (last line of defence for bears).


Wednesday, August 12, 2015


Long-term US treasuries (TLT) have probably entered a new bull phase after a correction from 138.5 (early 2015 high) to around 115.5(A-B-C correction).

We believe that TLT will probably stall at 125-126 and correct towards 120 where it will bounce and resume its upmove towards 131.5 and then 140.
It is very important for TLT to break above 131.5 to establish a longer-term bull move.

We feel that the above chart could possibly mark a new round of QE... 

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Gold still Bearish (...but slowly we're getting there)

Recently gold broke up from a trading range around 1090.Regardless of the recent run-up we remain bearish on gold. Currently and as long as gold stays below 1135, it has few possibilities for a longer-term upmove.
We believe that the current move of gold will stall at around 1125-1130 (or lower) and reverse towards 1080 or a bit lower.

We stay with a previous gold EW count(Gold shows further signs of weakness).
Current upmove is probably a fourth wave of a bigger third wave.So probably, gold will retrace towards 1080 or lower in a fifth wave:

Same picture for miners (GDX):Probably the current upmove will fade at around 14.8 and reverse towards recent lows (13.0) or even lower.After that, a strong bounce (fourth wave of current downmove from January this year) will probably kick in.

Monday, August 3, 2015

Oil at crossroads

Currently Oil is touching support at 46$.As we noted in a previous comment (Oil towards 46$) 46 level is an inflection point.We believe that Oil will soon breakdown 46$ and move towards 36-37$ with simultaneous increase in volume (capitulation) which can potentially lead to a significant reversal, marking the initiation of a significant bull move from these levels.

Similar picture for Oil companies (XLE).As we predicted there was a bounce at 68 level.However the bounce was not significant.Probably we will see a move towards 59-60$ or even lower with increased volume (capitulation, bankruptcies for oil explorers) and then a significant reversal.